Week 4 Preview
THE REAL REFS ARE BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ok, now that we have this insane crisis over with, we can concentrate, once again, on the actual games. The first three weeks of the NFL season were full of chaos and controversial calls, with the climax being this past Monday Night game in which the referees blew the game for the Green Bay Packers and handed a win to the Seattle Seahawks on a silver platter. There were also plenty of crazy injuries, from would-be-a-break-out-star-if-he-was-healthy CJ Spiller, to Darrelle Revis tearing his ACL and being done for the season (cue Jets fans sobbing uncontrollably), to Matt Schaub losing a piece of his ear on a gruesome hit. It was a truly wild weekend in the NFL last week, and we’ll see how much more controlled it will be now that the real referees are back in business. Hopefully now there will be a much better product on the field, and we can concentrate on the actual games. Let’s see what’s in store for us this weekend with the spreads.
CLE vs BAL (-12.5) - The Browns still look awful. Right now I’m on pace to be right about Cleveland having the number one pick in the draft next year. The Ravens are coming off an incredible comeback against the rival Patriots which is a huge emotional win for them. They are now 2-1 and sitting on top of the AFC North. They will win tonight (or at least, they better), but there’s just something about these division games that end up being closer than they should be. I’m taking the Browns with the points on the road. Cleveland 13, Baltimore 23.
CAR vs ATL (-7.5) - I missed on Atlanta. I’ll admit it. I don’t like this team, and I showed that by picking them to miss the playoffs. Now already, it seems that they are the early favorites to be number one seed in the NFC. So here’s a new prediction: they will be this year’s version of the Green Bay Packers. Not that they will go 15-1, but they will be the number one seed and once again lose their first playoff game, continuing Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ playoff woes. I would love the Panthers to win this game, but I don’t see it. Falcons comfortably, cover. Carolina 20, Atlanta 34.
NE vs BUF (+3.5) - The Bills won this game last year, and if they were at full strength at running back with Jackson and Spiller, I would have picked them again. However, they are banged up and the Patriots have lost two in a row. That rarely happens. They will not lose three in a row. I have a feeling that the Pats will drop hammers onto the Bills in this game. Thunder will rain down from the heavens and New England will cover. But I will be rooting for the Bills. New England 31, Buffalo 21.
MIN vs DET (-6.5) - If there was one upset pick that I would put my money on, it would be this game. The Vikes are coming off an incredible win against the 49ers and the Lions have been struggling (as predicted by yours truly). Stafford is a little banged up and if Minnesota can control the clock, they have a great chance of starting 3-1. Even if the Vikings don’t win, they will beat the spread. Minnesota 24, Detroit 23.
SD vs KC (+0.5) - For a second there, I was really embarrassed about my pick of the Chiefs winning the AFC West. Now, after pulling off an upset in New Orleans last week, Kansas City has a great chance of beating the Chargers and getting back to 2-2, and sitting atop the division. San Diego has struggled to a 2-1 record except for a blowout of Tennessee, and this Chiefs team is ready to break loose. Chiefs at home to get back on track. San Diego 19, Kansas City 27.
SEA vs STL (+2.5) - So, how about those 2-1 Seattle Seahawks, who obviously deserve their winning record? I won’t poke fun at them, because I am a Seattle fan and I am rooting for Russell Wilson to succeed. So, therefore, cover alert! The Seahawks get their first road win by a field goal over an underrated Rams team, even though they got lit up in Chicago last week. Seattle 20, St. Louis 17.
SF vs NYJ (+3.5) - This game is really interesting for me. I originally had the Jets winning this game, and that pick would have been even more certain after San Fran lost in Minnesota last week. However, since the injury to Darrelle Revis for the season...yeah...49ers cover. San Francisco 24, New York 16.
TEN vs HOU (-12.5) - The Houston Texans are absolutely the number one team in football, at least for this week. However, as with the Ravens, this line scares me. It’s just a lot to ask to beat a team by two touchdowns who just put up 44 points last week (still without any contribution whatsoever from Chris Johnson). I think the Texans will improve to 4-0 and continue running away with this division, but the Titans beat the spread. Tennessee 22, Houston 30.
OAK vs DEN (-6.5) - Although the Raiders are coming off a huge win against Pittsburgh last week (which I loved! Down with the Steelers!), they have not been clicking right for the entire season so far. Do I think that Peyton Manning can beat a horrendous Raider defense by a touchdown at home? Yes. Cover city all day in the other Big D. Oakland 20, Denver 30.
MIA vs ARI (-6.5) - Another point spread that makes me happy because it can be beaten by a touchdown margin. How about those Cardinals? In three games, they have beaten the Seahawks (a win that looks much better now), the Patriots on the road, and the Eagles (which I had pegged as an upset before the season). Talk about having an impressive season. Now they face their easiest test of the season at home against the Dolphins who are a functional right foot away from being 2-1. Do they win? Yes. Do they win by a touchdown? Yes. Miami 13, Arizona 20.
CIN vs JAC (+1.5) - This game makes me nervous. The Bengals should win, especially after a very impressive win in Washington last week. However, this game just has one of those upset feels to it. But I hate the Jags and I don’t want them to win so I’m not picking it. I’m relying on Andy Dalton’s efficiency at beating inferior teams on this one. They cover, barely. Watch out for this game though. MJD has a chance to run wild. The more I type, the more nervous I get. Cincinnati
23, Jacksonville 21.
NO vs GB (-7.5) - This line is scary. Nothing like a desperate team with its pride on the line playing well against all odds. This game would have been a nice upset pick. That is, until Monday happened. You know how I talked about how the Pats were going to come out on a rampage this Sunday? Multiply that times 100 for how the Pack are going to feel. They were the victims of the busted replacement refs experiment and should be 2-1 right now, instead of sitting at 1-2 and a losing record. That call had huge playoff implications. I would have had the Saints beating the points...but this Packer team is going to want the blood of everyone. More bad luck for the Saints. I’m predicting a cover here. New Orleans 27, Green Bay 38.
WAS vs TB (-2.5) - What a matchup this is. An underrated game featuring two underrated 1-2 teams that should probably both be 2-1. The loser of this game will be 1-3 and be on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. It’s the most exciting young player in the league (RGIII) against one of the most improved teams with a new identity in the league. So who wins? Bucs at home. They shut down Tony Romo last week and will play well enough to win. Tampa by a field goal. Washington 23, Tampa Bay 26.
NYG vs PHI (-2.5) - Just when you think I couldn’t be more excited for a Sunday Night game than I was last week, we have the Giants against the Eagles in Philly. What a matchup. Both teams 2-1, but only one will get to 3-1 and have an inside track at the division title (because Dallas won’t last). What do I think? 12 turnovers in 3 games for the Eagles worry me. I think McCoy will back up his big talk against Osi and have 150 total yards. However, I think that the Giants D-line is ready to wreak havoc against the punching bag that is Michael Vick. Over/under 2.5 sacks for JPP? Also, Eli has just been on a different planet recently. The G-men are road warriors. And they get this one done on the road in an incredibly entertaining match-up. New York 27, Philadelphia 23.
CHI vs DAL (-3.5) - Finally, you have the Monday Night game. Don’t expect the same fireworks as last week. However, this is a great match-up. Two teams that are 2-1 and could easily be fighting for playoff seeding later in the season. I’ve been high on Chicago for months now, and I won’t back down here. The Bears will find a way to escape with this win. The defense will come to play. The Cowboys crash in the biggest moments, and primetime is no exception. This game is huge for Big D, because after their bye in Week 5, they go TO Baltimore, TO Carolina, home against the Giants who have owned them in their own house, TO Atlanta, and TO Philadelphia. Where are the wins in there? If Dallas loses to fall to 2-2, they could be quickly looking at a 3-6 record. Either way, I’m taking the Bears, but I’m not feeling super confident about that pick right now. Chicago 23, Dallas 19.